November 18, 2018

A nice downside break after the phony follow-through day of two Wednesdays ago has been followed by two days of a rally in the NYSE-based indexes. Overall, however, the market appears to be stuck in a chop-zone that lies well off the early-October highs and the late-October lows. The Dow Jones Industrials is currently the leading index on a relative basis since it is the... [more]

November 14, 2018

The so-called follow-through day of exactly one week ago did what most follow-through days do – it failed. For the bulls this creates more of a mess of this market, while opportunistic shorts have prospered over the past few trading days since the FTD. In the process, both the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 Indexes broke near-term support, with the... [more]

November 11, 2018

My career as an oddsmaker ended abruptly on Friday as the nascent follow-through day, which I gave better than 50/50 odds of working, failed. Of course, I’ve said many times before, I am not a believer in follow-through days as a mindless “all clear” signal to go piling headlong into stocks. As I noted in my last report, the time to be thinking about the long side was before the follow-through... [more]

November 7, 2018

Henry David Thoreau, borrowing the words of one John O’Sullivan, the founder of the United States Magazine and Democratic Review, wrote in his well-known work, Civil Disobedience, “That government governs best that governs the least.” Thoreau, one of my favorite authors of all time, took that a little further by adding, “That government is best which governs not at all.” To... [more]

November 4, 2018

The market remains in the fourth day of a nascent rally attempt off the lows of this past Monday. Friday’s action put an end to what was a three-day upside streak for the indexes, as an early-morning gap-up move reversed and sent all the major indexes into the red. The NASDAQ Composite Index stalled and reversed at its 20-dema on higher and heavy selling volume.   ... [more]

October 31, 2018

Lower lows on Monday kept an ominous Halloween glow hanging over the market. But once again the market’s tendency to act like a cheap drunk who remembers nothing about what they did and with whom the night before took effect. A small gap-up open blossomed into a rally early yesterday, but the market then began to waver again, looking like a replay of Monday’s ugly action was in store. But... [more]

October 28, 2018

Things got a little crazy over the past two days as the market once again acted like a cheap drunk on Thursday morning, gapping up sharply as it completely forgot about Wednesday’s ugly, bearish sell-off to lower lows. That move looked quite strong, with the NASDAQ 100 Index up 3.35% on higher volume, despite fading a bit into the close. That set the stage for an after-hours... [more]

October 24, 2018

The descending triangle we were seeing in the largest and narrowest market indexes as of Monday night, as discussed in my video report that evening, came to ugly fruition yesterday. The market gapped down sharply at the open, sending both the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrials and the NASDAQ 100 Index below their 200-dmas. As the Dow streaked over 500 points lower,... [more]

October 21, 2018

The NASDAQ Composite Index is the weakest-performing of the major large-cap indexes by virtue of its -10.56% peak-to-trough decline that hit a near-term low last week. This contrasts with the peak-to-trough declines of over -7.83% and -7.61% in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials Indexes, respectively. After a natural reaction rally early... [more]

October 17, 2018

I wrote over the weekend that the fat part of the short-selling game was likely over with, at least for the near-term. Thus, there was no point in pressing the short side coming into the new trading week. Given that the indexes and many busted formerly leading stocks became wildly oversold by the time last Friday’s closing bell sounded, we have been treated to a normal, natural oversold reaction... [more]