July 9, 2017

On Wednesday I wrote that if we see the NASDAQ Composite Index peel away from its 50-day moving average on the downside then the S&P 500 Index would likely retest its 50-day moving average. That is what we saw on Thursday, with the S&P closing just below the 50-day line on higher selling volume. Friday’s jobs number came in at a seasonally adjusted... [more]

July 5, 2017

Monday was supposed to be a quiet, short, pre-holiday session for the market, but investors were instead treated to an unexpectedly unusual and unique fireworks show. The 3½ hour trading session started out with a big upside gap thanks to a sizable overnight move in the futures that gained momentum in pre-market trade leading right into the opening bell. For this market, it was just another... [more]

July 2, 2017

The NASDAQ Composite Index’s attempt to hold a bounce off the 50-day moving average failed quickly on Thursday, even before the opening bell. The NASDA 100 futures were already down overnight, presaging another brutal sell-off in the big-stock NASDAQ and tech names. The more important sign of the failure was the fact that a number of undercut & rally long set-ups that... [more]

June 28, 2017

The strong action we saw in many stocks on our watch list on Friday saw little to no follow-through on Monday. I tweeted early Monday that I didn’t like the reversals I was seeing after small gap-up openings in a number of stocks, including those that I was holding long myself. This caused me to take a cautious stance as I moved into cash and threw out my usual hedge in the ProShares Ultra... [more]

June 25, 2017

This remains a “Market in LUie Land” as the recoveries in techs and other names that were beaten to a pulp on June 9th continue.  All of these recoveries are occurring as L-shaped “bear flags” morph into U-shape “LUie” formations in defiance of conventional technical analysis. If this were all new to me I might be amazed at the sight of these LUie-type moves. But I myself... [more]

June 21, 2017

The market has taken on this random flavor where it seems to be moving in one direction and then suddenly shifts in not quite the blink of an eye. The most glaring example of this was the action two Fridays ago, on June 9th when the tech sector was beaming higher early in the day before reversing course in a brutal sell-off. Since then, the indexes have been attempting to stabilize... [more]

June 18, 2017

Coming in Thursday morning, holding cash or short positions was the place to be as the indexes gapped down sharply at the open. Based on the gap-down open, the indexes looked set to split wide open. But in its typical Ugly Duckling style, the market belied expectations and turned off the lows for a less than disastrous outcome by the close. The NASDAQ Composite Index found... [more]

June 14, 2017

Things got quite oversold Monday morning as the indexes opened lower amidst continued heavy selling in the tech sector. I tweeted early in the day that an oversold bounce was becoming more likely. At the time, this was showing up on the 5-minute “620” intraday charts in the form of MACD “stretch & cross” types of moves. That’s the first thing I look for when things start to... [more]

June 11, 2017

Friday will go down as one of the strangest market days I’ve seen in a long time, if not ever. Around mid-day the NASDAQ Composite Index broke hard to the downside as leading stocks got pummeled. At the same time, the NASDAQ advance/decline numbers were still roughly 2 to 1 positive. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 Index... [more]

June 7, 2017

The indexes are holding tight and near their highs as they consolidated last week’s gains. The NASDAQ Composite Index did get hit with a distribution day yesterday, as did the other major market indexes. But it is so far holding up in a tight three-day flag formation after posting new all-time highs last Friday. From the point of view of the indexes, things look okay. Of... [more]