July 8, 2018

In the face of bearish action on Tuesday, the market once again proves why one simply cannot take a rigid bullish or bearish position at any given point in time. The reality of this market is that there is still plenty of liquidity to drive a herd of algos in either direction, and one must be ready to move with the action as it unfolds in real-time. Not that it is always that easy. This market... [more]

July 4, 2018

The first half of a truncated Fourth of July holiday trading week has not typified what I would call quiet holiday trading. It started out with a sharp futures-led gap-down open on Monday that saw the indexes levitate off their lows in an apparently bullish reversal to close up on weak volume. But appearances in this market can be deceiving. Tuesday, which was a short trading day ahead of... [more]

July 1, 2018

The NASDAQ Composite Index briefly undercut its 50-dma on Thursday morning, as I indicated it might in my Wednesday report. That set up the context for an oversold bounce off the 50-dma that carried as high as the 20-dema on Friday. The upside push on Friday was no surprise given that it was also month-end, quarter-end, and the end of the first half of 2018. The bounce was also... [more]

June 27, 2018

The market started the week out on a decidedly negative note after the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump Administration was planning to impose restrictions on Chinese investment in U.S. technology companies. This sent the futures down sharply over the weekend, leading to a big sell-off on Monday. After stalling and churning yesterday on a reaction rally attempt, the indexes... [more]

June 24, 2018

The Dow Jones Industrials Index avoided a nine-day losing streak on Friday, rallying on the strength of oils and defensive names. On Thursday it set a 40-year record by finishing in the red for the eighth day in a row. Friday’s rally looked impressive for most of the day, but the Dow gave up not quite half its gains right into the close as it stalled at the 50-dma and closed in... [more]

June 20, 2018

My last report discussed the idea of using sell-offs related to any escalation of the current U.S.-China Trade Tiff as potential entry opportunities in favored stocks. That strategy worked well on Monday right off the open, but the flavor of the pullback changed slightly on Tuesday. Stocks kept selling off, most of them down to deeper areas of support, such as their 20-dema’s. In my... [more]

June 17, 2018

The market uptrend remains intact, despite a sell-off on Friday, thanks to news that the Trump Administration was moving forward with $50 billion in sanctions on Chinese goods and services. The indexes gapped down at the open, but eventually found support around mid-morning before rallying to close near the intraday highs. The NASDAQ Composite Index illustrates this with... [more]

June 13, 2018

The NASDAQ Composite Index powered to an all-time high yesterday, and looked set to do so again today. But a strong rally that held up even after the Fed announced another quarter-point increase in its Fed funds target rate gave it all up into the close as the index ended in the red, down -8.09, or -0.11%, on higher volume. But, as I noted in a tweet earlier today, and ahead... [more]

June 10, 2018

The NASDAQ Composite Index got hit with some selling volume on Thursday as extended tech names finally came under some profit-taking. As I’ve been writing in recent reports, as these names get more extended on the upside, the more in need of a pullback to help consolidate things. On Friday, the futures were down sharply, but the index held the Thursday intraday lows and rallied... [more]

June 6, 2018

The prior three trading days were very good for Gilmo names, as everything that wasn’t up started jacking higher, and everything that was already extended became even more extended. All this ebullience helped to drag the S&P 500 Index into breakout territory on Monday as it posted a higher high coming out of a relatively tight three-week price range. That was followed by a higher close... [more]