April 8, 2018

The market ended the week the way it began the week, with a big sell-off on more tariff news. While Monday’s sell-off was brought on my tough talk from the Chinese, Friday’s sell-off came after President Trump asked for consideration of another $100 billion in tariffs against China. This appeared to overshadow a weak jobs number of 103,000 vs. estimates of 175,000. And so, the trade war of words... [more]

April 4, 2018

The market has so far proven to be one of sows’ ears rather than silk purses as I surmised it was over the weekend. Everything is still in a downtrend, but the intraday situation remains decidedly in the “spin-cycle.” This makes for a decidedly difficult trading environment on either side, especially when you throw in the “guess the gap” moves we’ve seen overnight this week. It’s tough... [more]

April 1, 2018

One trading day has passed since my last report and what has changed since then? Well, not a lot. So, in the interests of invoking some variety and perhaps a change of perspective, here’s an interesting candlestick chart of the NYSE Composite Index. This comes from HGS Investor Software and was created by my old friend and sub-mentor Ian Woodward. This is an interesting... [more]

March 28, 2018

I told members over the weekend to fasten their seatbelts in preparation for the new trading week, but a neck brace might have also been appropriate given the extreme whiplash action we’ve seen over the past three days. News over the weekend that China and the U.S. were conducting talks to settle their trade differences sent the market rocketing on Monday. But the rally wasn’t entirely unexpected... [more]

March 25, 2018

The market split wide open on Thursday, sending the NASDAQ Composite Index gapping below its 50-dma. This came on the heels of Monday’s bearish breakout failure and now puts the index in limbo below its 50-dma. As I have discussed in recent reports, the Trump Tariff Rampage had the potential to create near-term chaos in the markets, and it is chaos that ruled the market action... [more]

March 21, 2018

Playing a strong defense came in handy on Monday as the markets gapped down, sending the S&P 500 Index diving below its 50-dma at the open. Things got crazy today after the Fed raised interest rates by a quarter-point, triggering a sharp rally to the upside that gave out into the close as the major market indexes reversed to the downside. In the process, the S&P reversed... [more]

March 18, 2018

The driving market theme over the past week has been a test of support for the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P 500 Indexes. The NASDAQ is pulling into its 10-dma and approaching the top of its trendline breakout of last week in the 7438-39 price area, so the picture hasn’t changed all that much from that described in my Wednesday mid-week report. If the NASDAQ... [more]

March 14, 2018

After rallying for seven-straight days, the NASDAQ Composite Index reversed sharply yesterday on higher volume. Given that this was the epicenter of upside leadership as big-stock NASDAQ names rocketed over the past several days, the pullback is perhaps not surprising. The sell-off was blamed on more tariff talk, this time targeting China, and the sudden firing of Secretary of State... [more]

March 11, 2018

A strong jobs report on Friday sent the market rocketing, with the NASDAQ Composite Index gapping on a breakout to all-time highs. Surprisingly, volume was not rip-roaringly higher, coming in at less than 1% higher than Thursday’s levels. But a breakout is a breakout, and if it comes on even slightly higher and above-average volume, then it remains a bullish move, end of story.   ... [more]

March 7, 2018

This continues to be an environment that I believe favors active traders. As I wrote over the weekend, the market is in something of a chop zone where news can become a factor, as was the case this morning when the market gapped down on news that White House Chief Economic Adviser Gary Cohn was resigning. This creates opportunities for enterprising investors who use the volatility to their advantage,... [more]