The Sun Also Rises

“…let us be hard-boiled cynics, believing nothing but what the action of the market tells us. If we can determine the supply and demand which exists for stocks, we need not know anything else.”                     — Humphrey B. Neill, 1931 A market that had partially discounted a Euro version of Armageddon... [more]

The Vault

“Take a trade only when it is as obvious to you as your nose. Don’t try to catch every move. Let the trade come to you and slap you in the face and tell you ‘I am here, take me.”                     — Anonymous It is logical to expect shares to pause here and retrace part of the 16% jump since the Oct... [more]

Stop and Go

October 9, 2011 “What is important are not the events themselves – but the market’s reaction to those events.”                    — Bernard Baruch Shares act normally following Tuesday’s takeout of the August lows. The diminishing volume and reduced range of the past two sessions tell you... [more]

When the Music Stopped

“A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way.”                    –Mark Twain Market participants who decided to play the long game in the wake of the August lows scramble to find a seat now that the music has stopped. In our last report of Sept. 27, we sniffed at the three-day... [more]

Turn it up (the volume, that is)

“Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1.”                     — Warren Buffett We have not been impressed with the three-day bounce following the 8.4% markdown of last Tuesday-Thursday in the Nasdaq. Volume has been light. As the adage goes, it takes volume to put a stock up, but a stock can fall... [more]


“Charting is a little like surfing. You don’t have to know a lot about the physics of tides, resonance, and fluid dynamics in order to catch a good wave. You just have to be able to sense when it’s happening and then have the drive to act at the right time.”                     — Ed Seykota Shares remain... [more]

As the World Burns

“Most people have the will to win. But few have the will to prepare to win.”                     — Bobby Knight   Shares, in spite of having a lot thrown at them over the past fortnight, hold up well. Price movements, however, should be taken with a grain of salt during the vacation-heavy,... [more]

Backing and Filling

“Unlike long-term and short-term moves, intermediate-term waves are relatively precise in form; they last long enough and are sufficiently identifiable to be outstandingly adaptable moves for selling purposes.”                     — Justin Mamis Shares wrapped up a constructive... [more]

The Test

August 21, 2011 “The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.” — Benjamin Graham   Technically, shares did what they had to do last week. The first index to test its Aug. 9 intraday low, the Nasdaq Composite, did so Friday on lower volume with fewer 52-week lows than on the initial... [more]

The Bounce

“The farther backward you look, the farther forward you can see.” — Sir Winston Churchill Shares are entitled to a bounce from what has been the third-steepest, nine-day descent in at least the past 49 years. The recent thrashing is in good company: Only Black Monday and the October ’08 bloodbath were more severe. The... [more]