The Breakout

I see trading more as a sporting challenge and try to erase the thought of the money.”                    –Paul Rotter Shares broke out of a textbook, nine-week, head-and-shoulders continuation pattern Tuesday, though Wednesday’s Fed meeting and press conference kept a lid on volume. As the below... [more]


“Trends always go further than rational people expect, or even imagine. In a very uncertain world, perhaps nothing makes more sense than simply following trends.” –John Henry Shares have stalled within spitting distance of the February highs as concerns over rich oil prices begin to bite. Based upon the tepid... [more]

Of FTDs & Liz Hurley

“When you find anyone agreeing with you, change your mind.” –John Maynard Keynes Shares put in a follow-through day Thursday (24), testing the top of the intraweek range and going out well, though Nasdaq volume was not impressive. The speculative sentiment that we mentioned in our last... [more]

March Sadness

“Show me someone who has done something worthwhile, and I’ll show you someone who has overcome adversity.”                      — Lou Holtz The Japanese disaster, as sadly horrific as any, is not anything that a seasoned veteran of California’s earthquakes could come... [more]

A Go-Slow Market

 “Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.” — Mark Twain         Shares remain firmly under the trance of rotation out of bonds and EM, with a dash of good data here and a pinch of good earnings there. The disappointing January jobs data was explained... [more]

The Wild Card

“I use technical analysis a great deal and it is terrific, but I can’t hold a position unless I understand why the market should move.”         –Bruce Kovner, Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders Shares are being driven by an economic expansion that until recently was not taken seriously by many market participants.... [more]

The Consistent Bid

“Failure is not falling down but refusing to get up.”                     –– Chinese Proverb Shares advance in stair-step fashion, perhaps the healthiest way for a market to rise, if not the most instantly gratifying. Markets like these, with fervent breadth and leadership, usually end... [more]

The Kashmir Market

“The whole inspiration came from the fact that the road went on and on and on… there was seemingly no end to it…” — Robert Plant, on the Page/Plant/Bonham composition “Kashmir” A market advance that has reminded one of the classic-rock radio staple “Kashmir,” and its seeming inability to end, is faced with... [more]

The Santa Claus Rally Sleepwalk

“The only thing that I know for certain is that I know that I know nothing.” — Descartes The big picture is that of a market discounting a transition from economic recovery to expansion into 2011H2. Fundamentally, the twin drivers have been the extension of the Bush tax cuts and QE2. Technically, this... [more]

A Watched Pot Never Boils

“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”                                          — George Soros Like a dog with a bone, institutional participants have been persistent... [more]