The Gilmo Report

March 15, 2017

March 15, 2017

The 91% probability of the Fed raising rates today went to 100% as this elite group of “anointed” individuals deemed fit to wield their omniscience over the U.S. monetary policy raised rates by a quarter point. This sent the indexes into their usual gyrations, but mostly to the upside.

By the time the dust had settled, the S&P 500 Index had completed a little trendline flag breakout on increased trading volume. On its face, the index action looks positive.

 

GR031517-$SPX

 

Not to be outdone, the NASDAQ Composite Index also posted its own trendline flag breakout on higher volume as well. It just missed posting a new all-time high, but I suppose there’s always tomorrow.

 

GR031517-$COMPQ

 

But while the index action looks very positive, it is still a matter of what is going on with the individual stocks, and that has been a mixed bag. Yesterday I pointed out in a blog comment to one member that this market seems like less of a bull or bear market than it is an “experiential” market. In other words, this market can look bullish, bearish, or just frustratingly choppy depending on what you own/short and when you own/short it.

So, if you’ve been playing short some of the opticals like FNSR, CIEN, or LITE, the airlines like DAL, UAL, and AAL, the oils (pick one), or something like CAT or GRUB, your experience would confirm a bearish environment. On the other hand, if you’ve been long MOMO or INCY or CLVS lately, your experience might confirm a bullish environment.

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