The Gilmo Report

February 22, 2017

February 22, 2017
The Dow Jones Industrials Index continued its monotonous ascent with its ninth-straight up day in a row. Volume was slightly lighter as sellers have remained reluctant to come into this market while every pullback is bought into. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index, not shown, held fairly tight today as volume declined. There remains a steady drumbeat of pundits... [more]
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February 19, 2017

February 19, 2017
I consider myself a fairly open-minded person. I understand that the market hasn’t had a 1% move in many days, and I understand that the Volatility Index ($VIX) is “dangerously” low while the hoi polloi remain “dangerously” ebullient. In the face of such ominous-sounding punditry, I am psychologically and methodologically prepared to deal with such a market pullback. After all, I am told... [more]

February 15, 2017

February 15, 2017
The market began the week with an instructive demonstration of why paying attention to the pundits’ worries about excessively bullish sentiment, a low VIX, and the number of days the market has gone without a 1% pullback won’t make you money. Anyone reacting and jumping ship on the basis of things that go bump in the night would have missed some nice moves and trading opportunities in a number... [more]

February 12, 2017

February 12, 2017
It seems one can’t really look anywhere these days without seeing an article or a pundit decrying the fact that the market “hasn’t had a 1% correction in 87 days,” that the Volatility Index (a.k.a. “the VIX”), or that bullish sentiment has reached extremes. Currently, the Investor’s Intelligence survey shows that 62.7% of investment advisers are bullish vs. a scant 16.7% of whom are... [more]

February 8, 2017

February 8, 2017
While the major indexes pushed to all-time highs over the prior two days, odd divergences were beginning to crop up yesterday. The first was breadth, which, despite all three of the major market indexes finishing positive on the day, came in at roughly 1.5 to 1 negative on both the NYSE and NADAQ Exchanges. The second divergence was the fact that both of the broader NYSE Composite... [more]

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