May 25, 2022

The great Financial Crisis Bear Market of 2007-2008 was a brutal affair. The way some talk about it you would think it was a straight-down move that mowed down everything in its path. In fact, it was not particularly different from most bear markets, as we can see on the weekly chart of the S&P 500 from that period below. The market topped in October 2007 and rolled around... Read More

May 22, 2022

Sell in May and go away. You hear that one all the time, but in 2022 it was better to sell in January and fuhgeddaboudit. The absurdity of such bromides like “Sell in May and go away” is that the other side of the equation is ignored entirely; there is no corresponding rhyme, maybe something like “Buy in September, if you can remember” that tells you when to buy back what you sold in May. Meanwhile,... Read More

May 18, 2022

The stock market of the 2020’s is certainly the most unusual that I have seen in my three decades plus of experience as a trader and investor. It is characterized by an at-times bizarre cornucopia of paradoxes and incongruities, led by the simple fact that the latest run-up to all-time highs was fueled by the most massive injection of liquidity in market history. The Fed’s balance sheet now... Read More

May 15, 2022

When I start getting spam emails from investment websites admonishing me to short the Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK), I start thinking hard about the possibility of a sharp oversold rally. I could start to smell it coming after the Monday and Wednesday selloffs, as I wrote in a blog post on Thursday morning, 39 minutes after the open: Remember that we are in an extremely pigged... Read More

May 11, 2022

Watching the market trade this week I keep hearing the voice of Bill O’Neil repeating the mantra, “Oversold can get a lot more oversold.” I spoke on the phone with Bill every day when I ran money for him for eight years back in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, and there are many times that I hear his voice-over when watching all the flashing numbers on my quote screens.... Read More[am4show... Read More

May 8, 2022

I have written many times before that in this crazy environment the market often does not remember what it did the day before. In other words, what the market does on any given day does not necessarily serve as a reliable indicator of what it will do the next. We saw a first-hand example this week when Wednesday’s wild upside romp following the Fed policy announcement melted into an even wilder... Read More

May 4, 2022

Monday brought a typical undercut & rally move in the S&P 500 as it broke out to new lows early in the day. That move reversed and the index pushed back above the 4114.65 reference low of February 24th and closed above it. That triggered a natural oversold rally ahead of today’s big Fed policy announcement, and then the fireworks began. By the close,... Read More

May 1, 2022

The market was in a logical position to post a natural reaction rally on Thursday given how oversold things became by Wednesday. At that time, the NASDAQ Composite was breaking to lower lows on the fourth day of an accelerating downside leg that began a month ago. The near-term oversold condition only needed a little prodding, and that came in the form of an allegedly positive... Read More

April 27, 2022

A natural reaction bounce on Monday was followed by a break to fresh 2022 lows by the NASDAQ Composite on Tuesday. The S&P 500 was not too far behind, closing yesterday at 4175.20, just above the 4170.70 closing low of March 8th. Today investors were treated to some typical volatility, with the Dow up 352.38 points early in the day. That... Read More

April 24, 2022

The wheels came off the market on the final two trading days of the week, in a horror show for the bulls. Of course, if one was playing the market on the short side as set-ups appeared as early as Wednesday, it was quite another story. The final catalyst, which I have been looking for as I have discussed in recent reports, was the proverbial other shoe to drop.... Read More[am4show guest_error='Subscription... Read More