September 19, 2021

Distilled down to its essence, investing is still mostly about making educated guesses. When operating in a market that exists well beyond the boundaries of historical norms, a lot of what you think you know about the way markets act or work goes right out the window. This effectively erases educated from the phrase educated guess and transforms the process into one of mostly just... Read More

September 15, 2021

The S&P 500 Index sold off six days from last Tuesday’s new-high peaks to again test its 50-day moving average in the middle of the month just as it has over the prior four months and just before the monthly options expiration each time. Every time the index has tested the 50-day line it has found support, as it did today on a slight increase in volume, and then bounced back... Read More

September 12, 2021

I woke up on Friday morning around 4:00 a.m. my time when my trading platforms open up for business and noticed that the futures were up pretty nicely. Figuring that this was likely due to some sort of news-push I checked the morning headlines and noted that the futures pump was being attributed to a phone call between President Biden and President Xi of China. Apparently, they discussed many wondrous... Read More

September 8, 2021

While the major market indexes may look like they’re still trying to digest Friday’s jobs number, individual stocks are already starting to draw their own conclusions. The NASDAQ Composite Index remains in a short, five-day consolidation around all-time highs, with no significant resolution in either direction.   ... Read More

September 5, 2021

The crowd was certainly not expecting a negative market reaction to a weak Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs number on Friday. Expectations were for anywhere from 725,000 to 750,000 but the BLS could only manage to puke up 235,000 “new” jobs for the month of August. The futures’ instantaneous initial reaction was to the upside, but after that the market went into a deep think as it sloshed around... Read More

September 1, 2021

A weak ADP Employment Change number of 374,000 jobs vs. expectations of 660,000 this morning kept Project Zimbabwe alive and well since the news was seen as helping to keep the Fed in easy-money mode which in turn is bullish for stocks. It is also a harbinger of perhaps a similarly weak Bureau of Labor Statistic jobs number on Friday, which is what the Fed has stated it is watching for... Read More

August 29, 2021

As I expected, Fed Chair Jerome Powell toed a dovish line in his Jackson Hole Symposium speech on Friday. Much of it simply echoed recent statements he has made in his Fed policy announcement press conferences. As a result, it was mostly a rehash of the same technocrat message that all is well and under control. If it weren’t, the Fed would play the role of economic handy man, equipped with its... Read More

August 25, 2021

New index highs have been the order of the day this week as the market anticipates Fed Chairman Jay Powell’s virtual speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium this Friday. There is something ironically appropriate about the Fed holding this meeting in a city that also happens to have the highest per-capita income from assets. Fed policy has done much to improve the lot of those who... Read More

August 22, 2021

The market fit the picture of the proverbial hot mess this past week as a tentative start on Monday led to big sell-offs in the middle of the week. This was capped by a big up day on Friday’s options expiration. The NASDAQ Composite gapped down hard on Thursday but found support along its July 27th low, where it then pulled an undercut & rally move back... Read More

August 18, 2021

The third trading week of August started out with two morning sell-offs that began in the overnight futures market. On Monday, the sell-off lasted about 90 minutes before the indexes turned back to the upside with the S&P 500 finding support at its 10-day moving average and the NASDAQ Composite again finding support at the 20-day line. Yesterday’s sell-off... Read More