October 25, 2020

In the early 2000’s, when I ran money for Bill O’Neil, I had the privilege of beta-testing the firm’s original chart-pattern recognition software. Basically, what it did was identify base patterns on the chart and outline them, much like what MarketSmith® does today. At that time, I was testing it on WONDA®, which was MarketSmith’s institutional-level big brother. In order to determine... Read More

October 21, 2020

The market has had a news circus atmosphere that reminds me of the China trade talks. Statements filled with innuendo about possible deals, constructive talks, hopes for a deal, etc. have been the order of the day as they were back during the China trade talk episode. In the end, nothing truly substantial with respect to the meatier aspects of U.S.-China trade... Read More

October 18, 2020

Way back when I ran money for Bill O’Neil, we were discussing the concept of double-top formations and their implications for future price direction. Bill admitted that these can be bearish patterns but also reminded me that “every cup-with-handle starts out as a double-top.” The difference, of course, is that it forms a handle and sets up before moving higher, whereas a double-top... Read More

October 14, 2020

A gap-up open on Monday has not resulted in any follow-through by the major market indexes although some are calling the NASDAQ Composite’s move on Monday a follow-through day. As you know, I have no use for such concepts, since stocks were already flashing buy signals along their lows 3-4 weeks ago as noted in these very reports. The two-day sell-off so far has occurred... Read More

October 11, 2020

The market is challenging the crowd’s assumption that no stimulus deal will result in a negative response from stocks. The Senate Majority Leader has made it clear that the Senate will not go for a big stimulus bill, regardless of whether it comes from the President or the House. To me it appears that a stimulus bill is DOA, but the market doesn’t seem to be worried about this. Does it... Read More

October 7, 2020

Buoyed by the President’s seemingly miraculous recovery from the deadly coronavirus and continued hopes of a stimulus bill deal, the market started the week off in a fit of jubilance. The NASDAQ Composite and S&P 500 Indexes gapped higher on Monday morning to regain their 50-day moving averages, albeit on lighter volume. Tuesday looked like another... Read More

October 4, 2020

A messy market got a little messier in the wee hours of Friday morning after news that President Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Speaking for myself, I’ve been surprised, maybe even impressed, by the President’s ability to avoid the virus amid his constant and often large-scale interactions with other human beings. The news algos responded by pummeling the futures, leading to a sharp... Read More

September 30, 2020

A better-than-expected ADP Employment Report number certainly didn’t hurt, but it was mostly the comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin regarding the potential imminence of a stimulus bill deal that got things moving sharply higher this morning. A market that lives by the sword dies by the sword, however. With 90 minutes left in the trading day, comments from Senate Majority Leader Mitch... Read More

September 27, 2020

The market remains in a correction. Technically, the NASDAQ Composite Indexes is in a 4- to 5-day rally off the Monday low, which it has held above all week. It rallied to end the week on lighter volume as it approaches its 50-day moving average and the top of its current bear flag downtrend channel.   ... Read More

September 23, 2020

The general market continues to roll lower as the current correction deepens.  The NASDAQ Composite Indexes didn’t make it quite as far as the 50-dma this morning on its latest little U&R type of move off the Monday lows before reversing and closing down an even three percent on the day. Volume expanded vs. the prior day, and the index now finds itself -12% off its recent... Read More