February 1, 2023

What better way to start off a new month than with a Fed policy announcement. The crowd came in as bullishly confident as it could with the expectation that the Fed would raise rates 25 basis points and proclaim, “Mission almost accomplished,” after which the wild rumpus higher would begin. ... Read More
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Things certainly... Read More

January 29, 2023

It is safe to say that things were getting quite piggy on the long side as we crossed into the latter half of the week if one was in the right stocks. The nature of this market dictates that when things become extended (and obvious) in one direction or the other it is time to exercise caution and take profits. Our best performer during the week was silver miner Silvercrest Metals (SILV)... Read More

January 25, 2023

The De-Dollarization Movement (DDM) is again in the news this week as Argentina and Brazil announced they were discussing the formation of a new trade currency, the Sur. They also invited other South American countries to join in the discussion. Whether they are successful in creating the Sur remains to be seen, but apparently the intention is there. ... Read More[am4show guest_error='Subscription... Read More

January 22, 2023

To understand where this market could go, we need to keep firmly in mind the essential two-sided situation with respect to the U.S. Dollar and the forces that will drive it lower. The first is, of course, the potential for a Fed pivot to a less aggressive or even dovish policy stance. ... Read More
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The second is as I... Read More

January 18, 2023

Weak economic data combined with a weak non-core Produce Price Index so far this week has provided further evidence of a sharp economic slowdown in progress. The Empire State index came in yesterday with a very stark decline of -32.9 vs. expectations of -8.5 while retail sales ex-auto declined -1.1% vs. expectations of -0.5%. Core PPI came in as expected at 0.1% but non-core PPI surprised with a... Read More

January 15, 2023

Everywhere I turn I see the pundits and commentators assuring everyone that 2023 is the year to own gold. Now they tell us. I must admit that it makes me a bit nervous when the media is suddenly on to something we saw months ago. But it takes a crowd to push a parabolic move, so we can be quite satisfied that we were there well ahead of the crowd as the trend in precious metals... Read More

January 11, 2023

Earnings season began to trickle down on Monday with a report from Commercial Metals (CMC), a name I discussed over the weekend. CMC beat earnings by 24 cents and guided for good results in the second quarter  “compared to historical quarters.” CMC had already broken out on Friday and the earnings report became... Read More

January 8, 2023

The first week of the trading week brought into the play the primary thematic drivers at work in this market. The first is that the Fed will maintain interest rates higher for longer, creating a bearish money flow environment for stocks which held sway earlier in the week. The second is the idea that the Fed is likely to reverse course sooner than later, and this is what drove the action at the... Read More

January 4, 2023

The market got off to a rocky start in 2023 after a gap-up open reversed sharply yesterday, sending the indexes well into the red by mid-day. The NASDAQ Composite Index spun around the 10-day moving average to close down 0.76% before heading into another gap-up open this morning. ... Read More
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By the time the... Read More

January 1, 2023

Heavy-duty volatility over the past three trading days marked a fitting end to the 2022 bear market year. Wednesday’s sharp downside break that saw the NASDAQ Composite Index post a new closing low for the year was followed by what else but a big retracement rally on Thursday. Another spurt of selling on Friday in turn reversed and retraced Thursday’s upside move, but Zombie... Read More