December 2, 2018

The market continued to rally into the weekend on a higher-volume, month-end move in anticipation of something significant taking place when Chinese President Xi and President Trump meet for dinner on Saturday. The Dow Jones Industrials pushed further beyond its 200-dma, which it cleared on a follow-through type move on Wednesday, before running right into its 50-dma.   ... Read More

November 28, 2018

The market has spent this post-holiday week pulling the melt-up move that it passed on during the Thanksgiving holiday week. This has most resulted in oversold bounces in severely beaten-down leaders, which, in combination with the major market indexes testing their October lows, is logical. I wrote over the weekend that a decent catalyst, either from the Fed or a U.S.-China trade rapprochement... Read More

November 25, 2018

The market finished down for the week, the first time we’ve seen the market down during the Thanksgiving holiday week since 2011. A brief melt-up on Wednesday was met by selling, which brought the Dow Jones Industrials back to the flat line after it was up over 200 points earlier in the day. Another drop today sent the index to a lower closing low but held above its October intraday... Read More

November 20, 2018

The market has finished on the upside every Thanksgiving holiday week since 2012. Because of this, I was eagerly awaiting a little melt-up move into the Thursday holiday as an opportunity to move in on the short side. As I wrote over the weekend, “A so-called melt-up may also be possible, but in my view, this would most likely set up a more optimal short-sale entry position in the indexes... Read More

November 18, 2018

A nice downside break after the phony follow-through day of two Wednesdays ago has been followed by two days of a rally in the NYSE-based indexes. Overall, however, the market appears to be stuck in a chop-zone that lies well off the early-October highs and the late-October lows. The Dow Jones Industrials is currently the leading index on a relative basis since it is the... Read More

November 14, 2018

The so-called follow-through day of exactly one week ago did what most follow-through days do – it failed. For the bulls this creates more of a mess of this market, while opportunistic shorts have prospered over the past few trading days since the FTD. In the process, both the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 Indexes broke near-term support, with the... Read More

November 11, 2018

My career as an oddsmaker ended abruptly on Friday as the nascent follow-through day, which I gave better than 50/50 odds of working, failed. Of course, I’ve said many times before, I am not a believer in follow-through days as a mindless “all clear” signal to go piling headlong into stocks. As I noted in my last report, the time to be thinking about the long side was before the follow-through... Read More

November 7, 2018

Henry David Thoreau, borrowing the words of one John O’Sullivan, the founder of the United States Magazine and Democratic Review, wrote in his well-known work, Civil Disobedience, “That government governs best that governs the least.” Thoreau, one of my favorite authors of all time, took that a little further by adding, “That government is best which governs not at all.” To... Read More

November 4, 2018

The market remains in the fourth day of a nascent rally attempt off the lows of this past Monday. Friday’s action put an end to what was a three-day upside streak for the indexes, as an early-morning gap-up move reversed and sent all the major indexes into the red. The NASDAQ Composite Index stalled and reversed at its 20-dema on higher and heavy selling volume.   ... Read More

October 31, 2018

Lower lows on Monday kept an ominous Halloween glow hanging over the market. But once again the market’s tendency to act like a cheap drunk who remembers nothing about what they did and with whom the night before took effect. A small gap-up open blossomed into a rally early yesterday, but the market then began to waver again, looking like a replay of Monday’s ugly action was in store. But... Read More