April 25, 2018

Things got ugly yesterday after stocks broke further to the downside on heavy volume. As I noted in my video report last night, the culprit this time came in the form of cautious comments from Caterpillar (CAT) and 3M Company (MMM) after both companies reported earnings before the bell. While MMM gapped down sharply at the bell, CAT ripped to the upside on a big... [more]

April 22, 2018

In my Wednesday report I noted the low-volume floater rallies we were seeing in big-stock NASDAQ names. As I pointed out, it made the market vulnerable to a pullback. We did indeed end the week with two days of downside distribution in the major market indexes, all of which dropped below their 50-dmas. The NASDAQ Composite Index broke decisively below its 50-dma on Friday,... [more]

April 18, 2018

The market found the necessary inspiration to abandon its sluggishness in a strong earnings report from (Netflix (NFLX) Monday after the close. This led to a strong gap-up open yesterday that sent the major market indexes back up through their 50-dmas. Big-stock NASDAQ names, moving in sympathy to NFLX, put the NASDAQ... [more]

April 15, 2018

The NASDAQ Composite Index got as far as its 50-dma on Friday at the open on another gap move to start the day, but reversed to close down on lighter volume. Note that the index also broke below the lower trendline of the ascending wedge that I noted in a tweet on Thursday. Resistance at the 50-dma is logical, and the fact that it came on light volume amid a lot of nervousness... [more]

April 11, 2018

I generally find follow-through days to be somewhat useless when it comes to determining the future direction of the general market. In a market like this, where news instability can create sharp and sudden swings in either direction, it’s difficult to tell whether a follow-through is real or just a function of a volatility twitch. Ultimately, the action of individual stocks tells the full story,... [more]

April 8, 2018

The market ended the week the way it began the week, with a big sell-off on more tariff news. While Monday’s sell-off was brought on my tough talk from the Chinese, Friday’s sell-off came after President Trump asked for consideration of another $100 billion in tariffs against China. This appeared to overshadow a weak jobs number of 103,000 vs. estimates of 175,000. And so, the trade war of words... [more]

April 4, 2018

The market has so far proven to be one of sows’ ears rather than silk purses as I surmised it was over the weekend. Everything is still in a downtrend, but the intraday situation remains decidedly in the “spin-cycle.” This makes for a decidedly difficult trading environment on either side, especially when you throw in the “guess the gap” moves we’ve seen overnight this week. It’s tough... [more]

April 1, 2018

One trading day has passed since my last report and what has changed since then? Well, not a lot. So, in the interests of invoking some variety and perhaps a change of perspective, here’s an interesting candlestick chart of the NYSE Composite Index. This comes from HGS Investor Software and was created by my old friend and sub-mentor Ian Woodward. This is an interesting... [more]

March 28, 2018

I told members over the weekend to fasten their seatbelts in preparation for the new trading week, but a neck brace might have also been appropriate given the extreme whiplash action we’ve seen over the past three days. News over the weekend that China and the U.S. were conducting talks to settle their trade differences sent the market rocketing on Monday. But the rally wasn’t entirely unexpected... [more]

March 25, 2018

The market split wide open on Thursday, sending the NASDAQ Composite Index gapping below its 50-dma. This came on the heels of Monday’s bearish breakout failure and now puts the index in limbo below its 50-dma. As I have discussed in recent reports, the Trump Tariff Rampage had the potential to create near-term chaos in the markets, and it is chaos that ruled the market action... [more]