March 7, 2018

This continues to be an environment that I believe favors active traders. As I wrote over the weekend, the market is in something of a chop zone where news can become a factor, as was the case this morning when the market gapped down on news that White House Chief Economic Adviser Gary Cohn was resigning. This creates opportunities for enterprising investors who use the volatility to their advantage,... [more]

March 4, 2018

The market has reached a chop zone where it has retraced roughly 50% of its sharp move up from the February 9th low, depending on which index you’re looking at. The NASDAQ Composite Index came close to retracing half of its prior rally, which by my reckoning would be down to the 7068 level. The index got as low as 7084.83 on Friday before rallying to close higher on lighter but at least... [more]

February 28, 2018

The market has reached what I would call muddy waters here as the strong-thrusting v-shaped rally off the lows of over two weeks ago starts to lose momentum. Yesterday all the major market indexes posted losses of more than -1.2% on higher volume, and followed up with similar declines today. The NASDAQ Composite Index posted its third distribution day since jacking sharply off the... [more]

February 25, 2018

A week full of soft closes, where the market started up in the morning and stalled to close down or well off its highs, ended on a more bullish note on Friday as all the major indexes achieved higher closing highs. The NASDAQ Composite Index led the charge with a 1.77% gain on slightly lighter volume.   ... [more]

February 21, 2018

The release of the Fed meeting minutes today set the market on fire, sending the Dow Jones Industrials Index up over 300 points on the day. But it didn’t take too long for the fire hoses to come out, and the fire was quickly put out. By the close, The Dow had pulled a big outside reversal to the downside on higher volume as it failed at its 50-dma. This would appear to be the end of the line for... [more]

February 18, 2018

After six straight up days coming right up from the lows of two Fridays ago, the NASDAQ Composite Index finally backed down on light volume Friday. At this stage we now want to see if and how it consolidates the prior reaction rally. This could occur on a pullback to and test of the 50-dma, or the index could simply hold tight sideways as the 50-dma catches up. Other alternatives,... [more]

February 14, 2018

Stronger than expected inflation numbers this morning sent the indexes trading down hard at the open. But the selling quickly subsided and the indexes began moving back to the upside. The NASDAQ Composite Index led the rally as it pushed past its 50-dma to post a surprising fourth-day follow-through coming straight up from the lows.   ... [more]

February 11, 2018

I don’t think I need to point out what everyone already knows, which is that this past week was one of wild and wooly volatility with plenty of mystery and intrigue on the side. The implosion of the short-VIX funds to more threats of a government shutdown to the wild 1,000 Dow point intraday swings made for one of the more interesting weeks we’ve seen in a while. We might even consider that... [more]

February 7, 2018

All hell broke loose on Monday as the Dow slid to nearly -1,600 points lower on an intraday basis before closing down over 1,000 in the worst point decline in its history. The sell-off had the feel of panic, at least in the short-term, but at that point the indexes were only down about 7-8% below their recent peaks. That qualifies as an intermediate correction, and on Friday the indexes undercut... [more]

February 4, 2018

Investors were finally provided a reminder of what a decent sell-off is like as leaders across the board were raked with heavy selling volume on Friday. NYSE breadth was about as ugly as it gets with decliners leading advancers by a whopping 2747 to 304. The volatile intraday action we saw earlier in the week looked cautionary, as I noted in Wednesday’s report, and we saw that funky action come... [more]