September 25, 2022
The primary advantage of the OWL approach is that it seeks to decipher the market’s message through the interpretation of individual stock set-ups. Since it is stocks that underlie the indexes, it is they who offer the first clues.
Mythical concepts about how many percentage points the indexes have to be up on how many days after a near-term low before one can call a market turn,... Read More
September 21, 2022
They call him Flipper, Flipper, faster than lightning,
No-one you see, is smarter than he,
And we know Flipper, lives in a world full of wonder,
Flying there-under, under the sea!
– The Flipper TV Show Theme Song, circa 1964-1967.
A 75-basis point rate hike from the Fed gave the market just what it wanted, although it took some time... Read More
September 18, 2022
A one-day pause on Wednesday following Tuesday’s brutal post-CPI sell-off looked like it might last at least a little bit longer as market pundits and talking heads anticipated an imminent crash. What the crowd is absolutely certain is about to happen generally doesn’t happen right away, if at all. However, I don’t necessarily get carried away with this since at certain points in an extended... Read More
September 14, 2022
An impetuous four-day rally off the lows of last Wednesday ran into a solid brick wall yesterday when the Consumer Price Index foiled any ideas of a downside surprise with an upside surprise instead. Talk about bait and switch. Core CPI came in at 0.6% vs. expectations of 0.3%, while non-core CPI, which includes gas prices, came in flat vs. expectations of a -0.1% decline.
If... Read More
September 11, 2022
The first book I wrote on short-selling, a book titled, How to Make Money Selling Stocks Short (John Wiley & Sons, 2004) that I ghost-wrote for Bill O’Neil, talked about the three-day rule. That is the basic idea that the market will have normal reaction bounces of as much as three days within an overall downtrend at which point you could revisit and re-enter short-sale target... Read More